شناسایی و تحلیل تهدیدات و فرصت های برآمده از پیشران های فرهنگ زیست محیطی در حوزه اجتماعی و فرهنگی
آرشیو
چکیده
حجم بالایی از دغدغه های بشر، شامل نگرانی هایی درباره آینده است. آینده محیط زیست به عنوان بخش مهمی از آینده زندگی، مورد توجه بخش بسیار زیادی از افراد، نهادها و دولت هاست. بر همین اساس هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و تحلیل تهدیدات و فرصت های برآمده از پیشران های فرهنگ زیست محیطی در حوزه اجتماعی و فرهنگی است. در این بررسی براساس هدف پژوهش، روش آینده پژوهی با رویکرد تحلیل روند و تحلیل پیشران برای تحلیل این موضوع به کار رفته است. جامعه آماری پژوهش نخبگان، خبرگان علمی و دانشگاهی فعال در حوزه محیط زیست هستند که 28 نفر از آن ها در گروه های کانونی و پنل خبرگانی مشارکت داشته اند و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از گزارش های معتبر پژوهشی و مشارکت کنندگان جمع آوری و تحلیل شده اند. پیشران های شناسایی شده برای تبیین فرهنگ زیست محیطی ایران برآمده از کلان روند حوزه اجتماعی و فرهنگی، برخی مصاحبه ها، جلسات هم اندیشی و گزارش های معتبر پژوهشی هستند که پژوهشگر براساس برخی مستندات این پیشران ها را در دو بعد ملی (10 پیشران) و در بعد فراملی (8 پیشران) شناسایی کرده است. در تحلیل این پیشران ها ازلحاظ تأثیرگذاری «تربیت زیست محیطی کودکان» با میانگین (964/3) و به لحاظ قطعیت «تاب آوری در نظام های اجتماعی بوم شناختی» با میانگین (581/3) در رتبه اول قرار داشته اند. درنتیجه تحلیل ماتریسی پیشران های (جلب مشارکت همگانی برای زباله صفر، افزایش شهرنشینی در جهان، ایجاد چشم انداز سبز، تربیت زیست محیطی کودکان، ایجاد چشم انداز مشترک زیست محیطی) جزو پیشران مهمی هستند که درزمینه تأثیرگذاری و میزان قطعیت، دارای امتیاز بالایی بوده اند که احتمال وقوع آن ها بیشتر از سایر پیشران ها است.Identifying and Analyzing Threats and Opportunities Arising from the Drivers of Environmental Culture in the Social and Cultural Spheres
Introduction Environmental culture is an important element of human general culture and will occupy a dominant position among other branches of cultural activity over time. It coordinates reIntroduction Environmental culture is an important element of human general culture and will occupy a dominant position among other branches of cultural activity over time. It coordinates relations between society and the environment. Also, environmental culture regulates environmental activities with the aim of harmonizing social and natural relations. The adverse effects and consequences of the environment have brought individual concerns about the environment to humanity, and along with other psychological problems, some environmental concerns have also been added to the concerns of contemporary humans as environmental sorrows. Such a situation is undoubtedly the product of the current dominant culture and the consumption-based social model that has grown and developed over many years. Accordingly, identifying the socio-cultural drivers affecting environmental culture is not a goal, but an undeniable necessity for the social system. Therefore, the increase in human actions on the environment and the dominant pattern of uncontrolled consumption in modern society contribute to the further intensification of the global environmental crisis, and the way out of this crisis is possible not only based on the normative-legal regulations of all areas of socio-economic life, but also by increasing the environmental culture of the population. Therefore, environmental culture is a tool that turns undesirable consequences into desirable opportunities. Considering the discussion raised in the field of environment, international studies conducted in the field of environmental culture are the first step in determining the macro-social and cultural trends affecting the future of environmental culture. It seems that there are a number of basic drivers within the macro-social and cultural trends, and by identifying these drivers, threats and opportunities arising from them can be identified. Accordingly, the present study examines and discusses the trends affecting environmental culture in the social and cultural fields in the future. Research Method In this study, based on the research objective of identifying and analyzing threats and opportunities arising from the drivers of environmental culture in the social and cultural fields, the futures research method with the approach of trend analysis and driver analysis has been used to analyze this issue. In this study, the statistical population of the study includes; specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country who can have the most knowledge and information about the future of the environment and its related culture in Iran. The sampling method was carried out purposefully and, considering the existing conditions and facilities, 28 people were surveyed. Data collection was based on brainstorming sessions between specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country, whose findings were analyzed. Results and Discussion In this study, an attempt was made to identify and analyze the socio-cultural macro-trend affecting environmental culture using the experiences of specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country. It should be noted that environmental culture can be simultaneously affected by economic, political, and even technical macro trends, but in this study, the social and cultural macro trend has been specifically analyzed and examined. The results showed that the drivers (attracting public participation for zero waste, increasing urbanization in the world, creating a green vision, environmental education for children, creating a common environmental vision) are among the important drivers that have high scores in terms of impact and certainty, and their probability of occurrence is higher than other drivers. It goes without saying that in order to improve the environmental culture of a country, one should focus on such drivers. Also, the status of the drivers is very important in terms of low impact, but high certainty in terms of probability of occurrence. In other words, these drivers have either occurred or are about to occur. These drivers include (increasing deculturation or decline of traditional culture, population growth, changing individual habits, global commitment to the environment, focus on the desired future of socio-ecological systems). These drivers may have low impact, but their chances of occurrence are higher and they have high certainty of occurrence. Conclusion In this study, the social and cultural macro-trend has been specifically analyzed and examined. Based on this macro-trend, drivers in national and transnational dimensions have been identified and analyzed, and focusing on these drivers can promote environmental culture in the future. In general, 18 drivers for the future of environmental culture have been identified both in the national and international arenas, which create important issues in the social and cultural fields for predicting the country's environmental culture. Quantitative analysis and statistical ranking of these drivers showed that things such as; attracting public participation for zero waste, increasing urbanization in the world, creating a green landscape and environmental education for children are more important and effective than drivers such as; developing environmental knowledge, restraint and control of fishing, hunting and harvesting from nature, anti-social algorithms of the Internet and cyberspace, and national dialogue for soil protection. lations between society and the environment. Also, environmental culture regulates environmental activities with the aim of harmonizing social and natural relations. The adverse effects and consequences of the environment have brought individual concerns about the environment to humanity, and along with other psychological problems, some environmental concerns have also been added to the concerns of contemporary humans as environmental sorrows. Such a situation is undoubtedly the product of the current dominant culture and the consumption-based social model that has grown and developed over many years. Accordingly, identifying the socio-cultural drivers affecting environmental culture is not a goal, but an undeniable necessity for the social system. Therefore, the increase in human actions on the environment and the dominant pattern of uncontrolled consumption in modern society contribute to the further intensification of the global environmental crisis, and the way out of this crisis is possible not only based on the normative-legal regulations of all areas of socio-economic life, but also by increasing the environmental culture of the population. Therefore, environmental culture is a tool that turns undesirable consequences into desirable opportunities. Considering the discussion raised in the field of environment, international studies conducted in the field of environmental culture are the first step in determining the macro-social and cultural trends affecting the future of environmental culture. It seems that there are a number of basic drivers within the macro-social and cultural trends, and by identifying these drivers, threats and opportunities arising from them can be identified. Accordingly, the present study examines and discusses the trends affecting environmental culture in the social and cultural fields in the future. Research Method In this study, based on the research objective of identifying and analyzing threats and opportunities arising from the drivers of environmental culture in the social and cultural fields, the futures research method with the approach of trend analysis and driver analysis has been used to analyze this issue. In this study, the statistical population of the study includes; specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country who can have the most knowledge and information about the future of the environment and its related culture in Iran. The sampling method was carried out purposefully and, considering the existing conditions and facilities, 28 people were surveyed. Data collection was based on brainstorming sessions between specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country, whose findings were analyzed. Results and Discussion In this study, an attempt was made to identify and analyze the socio-cultural macro-trend affecting environmental culture using the experiences of specialists and experts and some environmental activists in the country. It should be noted that environmental culture can be simultaneously affected by economic, political, and even technical macro trends, but in this study, the social and cultural macro trend has been specifically analyzed and examined. The results showed that the drivers (attracting public participation for zero waste, increasing urbanization in the world, creating a green vision, environmental education for children, creating a common environmental vision) are among the important drivers that have high scores in terms of impact and certainty, and their probability of occurrence is higher than other drivers. It goes without saying that in order to improve the environmental culture of a country, one should focus on such drivers. Also, the status of the drivers is very important in terms of low impact, but high certainty in terms of probability of occurrence. In other words, these drivers have either occurred or are about to occur. These drivers include (increasing deculturation or decline of traditional culture, population growth, changing individual habits, global commitment to the environment, focus on the desired future of socio-ecological systems). These drivers may have low impact, but their chances of occurrence are higher and they have high certainty of occurrence. Conclusion In this study, the social and cultural macro-trend has been specifically analyzed and examined. Based on this macro-trend, drivers in national and transnational dimensions have been identified and analyzed, and focusing on these drivers can promote environmental culture in the future. In general, 18 drivers for the future of environmental culture have been identified both in the national and international arenas, which create important issues in the social and cultural fields for predicting the country's environmental culture. Quantitative analysis and statistical ranking of these drivers showed that things such as; attracting public participation for zero waste, increasing urbanization in the world, creating a green landscape and environmental education for children are more important and effective than drivers such as; developing environmental knowledge, restraint and control of fishing, hunting and harvesting from nature, anti-social algorithms of the Internet and cyberspace, and national dialogue for soil protection.
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