مقایسه نگرش نخبگان شهر هرات نسبت به سیاست های ایران، پاکستان و هند در قبال افغانستان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به مقایسه نگرش نخبگان شهر هرات نسبت به سیاست های ایران، پاکستان و هند در قبال افغانستان، در ابعاد امنیتی، سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی و مذهبی می پردازد. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و تحلیلی بوده و ازلحاظ روش اجرا، پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری آن را نخبگان شهر هرات تشکیل می دهند. با استفاده از فرمول نمونه گیری کوکران، ۳۶۰ نفر به عنوان حجم نمونه و به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه ای انتخاب شدند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که نخبگان شهر هرات به طور کلی، سیاست های هند در قبال افغانستان را مطلوب تر از سیاست های ایران و پاکستان ارزیابی می کنند. همچنین، یافته های تحقیق به صورت جزئی نشان می دهد که در زمینه سیاست های امنیتی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی و نیز خط مشی های سیاسی، نخبگان هرات به ترتیب هند، ایران و پاکستان را ترجیح داده و در سیاست های مذهبی و فرهنگی، به ترتیب هند، پاکستان و ایران را ترجیح می دهند.A comparative study of attitude of elites of Herat city on the policies of Iran, Pakistan and India toward Afghanistan
The aim of the current research is to compare the perspectives of elites in the city of Herat regarding the policies of Iran, Pakistan, and India in the dimensions of security, politics, economy, society, culture, and religion towards Afghanistan. This research is both practical and analytical in terms of its objective and, methodologically, it adopts a survey approach. The research population comprises elites in the city of Herat, and using the Cochran formula, a sample size of 360 individuals was selected through stratified random sampling method. The findings of the research indicate that, overall and in all dimensions, elites in the city of Herat hold a more favorable attitude towards India's policies towards Afghanistan compared to the policies of Iran and Pakistan. Furthermore, the research findings suggest that, specifically, the elite's perspectives towards security policies rank India, Iran, and Pakistan in order; political strategies rank India, Iran, and Pakistan respectively; economic policies rank India, Iran, and Pakistan respectively; religious policies rank India, Pakistan, and Iran respectively; cultural policies rank India, Pakistan, and Iran respectively; and social policies rank India, Iran, and Pakistan respectively as more favorable. 1. IntroductionWhen discussing Afghanistan's foreign policy dynamics, the often-overlooked aspect by researchers is the perspective of Afghan elites regarding neighboring countries' policies towards their nation. This study focuses on Herat's elite perspectives on Iran's, Pakistan's, and India's policies towards Afghanistan. Understanding these viewpoints can significantly impact Afghanistan's foreign policy. The primary hypothesis suggests differences in elite perceptions, while secondary hypotheses propose varied perspectives on security, politics, economics, religion, culture, and social policies of these three countries towards Afghanistan. This exploration aims to enhance mutual comprehension among Iran, Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan.1.1. Detailed Research MethodologyThe study, conducted in 2020-2021 in Herat city, Afghanistan, engaged 4079 elites, including governmental officials, intellectuals, scholars, and social figures. Utilizing a sample size of 360, a researcher-built questionnaire assessed elites' perspectives on Iran, Pakistan, and India's policies towards Afghanistan. The questionnaire comprised demographic queries and seven dimensions on elite attitudes towards these policies. The analysis, performed via SPSS software, employed descriptive statistics and factor analysis, demonstrating the reliability and validity of the research variables.2. DiscussionThe elites in Herat exhibit varying perspectives towards Iran, Pakistan, and India's policies concerning Afghanistan. They favor India's involvement due to its substantial aid despite lacking cultural proximity or a shared border. Iran criticizes foreign military presence and uses migrants as leverage, while Pakistan tends to pursue its regional interests and supports religious schools in Afghanistan. These factors lead to a less positive view of Pakistan and Iran's policies compared to India. Additionally, regarding security policies, elites view Iran and Pakistan's strategies with more skepticism than India's, attributing this to concerns about destabilization efforts in Afghanistan and doubts about ensuring the country's stability and peace. This hierarchy of trust aligns with the distance from Afghanistan, terrorist activities in Pakistan, and Iran's challenges with foreign forces in Afghanistan.Based on the results of the second subsidiary hypothesis test, elites in Herat hold differing views regarding the political strategies of Iran, Pakistan, and India towards Afghanistan. They exhibit a more favorable attitude towards India's policies compared to Iran and Pakistan. This perspective stems from their perception of these countries' policies, especially Iran's increased use of Afghan migrants as a pressure tool on the Afghan government and Pakistan's greater use of Afghanistan to secure its regional and international interests. Additionally, as per the outcomes of the third subsidiary hypothesis test, elites view India's economic policies more positively in comparison to Iran and Pakistan. They believe that economic cooperation and trade with these three countries can contribute to Afghanistan's economic development, although they are skeptical about these countries' intentions, perceiving their involvement as seeking political influence through economic engagement. These findings align with research indicating India's strategic interest and economic investments in Afghanistan.Based on the results of the fourth subsidiary hypothesis test, elites in Herat hold different views regarding the religious policies of Iran, Pakistan, and India towards Afghanistan. They have a more positive attitude towards India's religious policies compared to Pakistan and Iran. The elites believe that Iran and Pakistan's support for religious groups close to them could lead to religious division and instability in Afghanistan. Contrary to a previous study, they do not view Iran's religious policies positively, disagreeing with the notion that 66% of the sampled population holds a positive attitude towards Iran's religious policies in Afghanistan. Furthermore, as per the outcomes of the fifth subsidiary hypothesis test, elites' perspectives on the cultural policies of Iran, Pakistan, and India towards Afghanistan differ. They view India's cultural policies more favorably compared to Pakistan and Iran. The elites believe that Iran and Pakistan's cultural policies have jeopardized the administrative and social status of Afghans showing interest in these countries, perceiving efforts by Iran and Pakistan to exert cultural influence in Afghanistan through their media as problematic.Moreover, based on the results of the sixth subsidiary hypothesis test, elites in Herat have distinct views regarding the social policies of Iran, Pakistan, and India towards Afghanistan. They hold a more positive attitude towards India's social policies compared to Pakistan and Iran. Despite acknowledging the disdainful attitudes of certain governmental institutions in Iran and Pakistan towards Afghan people, the elites separate their perceptions of these governments from their feelings towards the nations themselves. They believe that Afghan citizens' marriages with citizens of these countries have positively influenced mutual relationships.3. ConclusionElites in Herat, a city neighboring Iran with an 80% Farsi-speaking population, tend to view India more favorably than Iran across various dimensions. While their perception of Iran ranks after India but before Pakistan in some aspects, it falls behind Pakistan in cultural and religious dimensions. This could stem from Iran's one-sided support for Shiite groups in a predominantly Sunni city or its perceived cultural dominance. 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