تحلیل استراتژیک قدرت هوشمند جمهوری اسلامی ایران در بهره گیری از رقابت چین و امریکا بر اساس الگوی SWOT (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در سال های اخیر شاهد رقابتی چندجانبه میان چین و امریکا بوده ایم. جمهوری اسلامی ایران با جایگاه ویژه ژئوپلیتیکی خود، در این رقابت حائز اهمیت راهبردی است. رقابت چین و امریکا و در واقع تغییر روند اعمال یکجانبه قدرت در سطح جهان، فرصتی برای کشورهایی همچون ایران است تا راهبردهای جدیدی را برای خود تعریف کنند و ضمن پرهیز از دخالت مستقیم در درگیری های احتمالی آتی، از آن بیشترین بهره را ببرند. پرسش پژوهش این است که مناسب ترین استراتژی ها برای ایران برای بهره گیری از رقابت چین و امریکا کدام هستند؟ بر مبنای مفهوم قدرت هوشمند، از الگوی تحلیلی SWOT برای استخراج استراتژی ها استفاده شده است که نظام دهنده داده هایی است که با استفاده از منابع اسنادی- کتابخانه ای و مصاحبه نیمه ساخت مند با صاحب نظران جمع آوری شده اند. در این الگو قوت ها + فرصت ها= راهبردهای تهاجمی، قوت ها + تهدیدها= راهبردهای محافظه کارانه، ضعف ها + فرصت ها= راهبردهای رقابتی و ضعف ها + تهدیدها= راهبردهای تدافعی را بدست داده اند. اهم استراتژی های مذکور شامل استفاده همزمان از فناوری های دو قدرت در عین تلاش برای کاهش وابستگی به طرفین؛ توجه به مقوله دیپلماسی عمومی- رسانه ای جهت اقناع افکار عمومی در اتخاذ راهبردهای جدید و برقراری روابط تجاری مناسب با سایر کشورها در کنار چین برای جلوگیری از وابستگی به یک کشور هستند.SWOT Strategic Analysis of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Smart Power in Taking Advantage of Sino-American Competition
IntroductionChina’s significant economic progress in recent decades, which has also spurred military advancements, has challenged the U.S. unilateralism and its unrivaled power on the international stage. In recent years, there has been an increasing competition between the two powers, with economic rivalry being the most prominent aspect. The Islamic Republic of Iran, located in West Asia—an important region due to its rich energy resources—holds considerable strategic importance for both countries. In fact, the Sino-American competition and the shift away from unilateral enforcement of power present an opportunity for nations like Iran to develop new strategies. By doing so, they can maximize their advantages while avoiding direct involvement in potential future conflicts. It is thus essential to formulate strategies that capitalize on the current situation and mitigate the associated threats. The present research sought to answer the following question: What are the appropriate strategies for the Islamic Republic of Iran, considering the components of smart power, to take advantage of the competitive environment between China and the U.S.?Literature ReviewThere are many studies on smart power and its definition in general, including the report by Joseph Nye and Richard Armitage titled CSIS Commission on Smart Power: A Smarter, More Secure America (Armitage & Nye, 2007). As officials at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, they outlined the concept of smart power in their report, listing the components of America’s smart power. Another area of focus in the literature is the competition between China and the U.S. In the article “Managing China and America’s Energy Competition in West Asia” Leverett and Flynt (2005) highlighted China’s growing need for resources from West Asia, which has led the country to become an influential competitor in the region. In the article “Is a New Cold War Inevitable? A Chinese Perspective on US–China Strategic Competition,” Zhao (2019) presents a Chinese perspective on the strategic rivalry between China and the U.S. Iran Between the US and China (Forough, 2021) is the research report published by the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM) in Ankara. It examined Iran’s position amid the competition between China and the U.S. By analyzing the rivalry between America’s military and geopolitical power and China’s geo-economic influence, Forough (2021) aimed to shed light on Iran’s relationship with both powers within this competitive context. It should be noted, however, that the aforementioned studies do not cover all aspects of Sino–American competition, nor do they address the strategies that the Islamic Republic of Iran could adopt to navigate the competitive dynamics between these two powers. Specifically, they overlook how Iran might leverage its own concept of smart power, based on indigenous components, to capitalize on this geopolitical competition.Materials and MethodsTo answer the research question, it is essential to employ a comprehensive model that simultaneously considers domestic resources and limitations, while also examining international conditions, opportunities, and challenges. Such a holistic approach will provide a clear framework for operational strategies. Therefore, the study used the SWOT model to examine the topic. This method analyzes four key components (i.e., strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats), organizing them in a matrix-like table. Since the model considers two internal and two external components, it results in four distinct strategies: offensive strategy at the intersection of strengths and opportunities; conservative strategy at the intersection of weaknesses and opportunities; defensive strategy at the intersection of strengths and threats; and competitive strategy at the intersection of weaknesses and threats. The research also employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze the data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with several professors and officials in the fields of foreign policy, smart power, and the Sino–American competition. Concerning the conceptual framework, the study relied on the concept of smart power, which refers to the strategic combination of both soft and hard components of power. Historically, power has been measured through components such as population, territory, natural resources, economic strength, military forces, and social stability. However, hard power alone is insufficient. Smart power is neither purely hard nor soft; rather, it is an astute integration of both. Smart power involves developing a comprehensive strategy that leverages available resources and tools to secure national interests and achieve goals (Nye & Armitage, 2007).Results and DiscussionThis research sought to answer the question: What are the appropriate strategies for the Islamic Republic of Iran, considering the components of smart power, to take advantage of the competitive environment between China and the U.S.? The study first examined the hard and soft power components of Iran’s smart power, identifying its strengths and weaknesses in each dimension of power. Then, considering the threats and opportunities arising from the competition between China and the U.S., a SWOT analysis was conducted, leading to the development of four strategic categories, as follows. The main offensive strategies include placing double emphasis on naval policies and strategies, as well as fostering cooperation with naval powers; promoting cultural exchanges based on the shared cultural affinities between Islam and Confucianism; and signing medicine production contracts with China, including the production of radiopharmaceuticals, cancer treatments, vaccines, and herbal medicines. The primary conservative strategies are as follows: utilizing China’s new capital and technology for oil exploration and extraction; actively participating in international organizations to leverage global resources and facilitate commercial and financial exchanges, as well as attracting capital and tourists; and conducting joint military exercises with China to impart modern military technologies to Iranian military forces. The main competitive strategies include establishing joint ventures with China and other countries to prevent economic and security dependence; creating jobs through the development of industries and joint economic projects with China—which would improve the economic situation and reduce domestic dissatisfaction; and advancing the nuclear industry by continuing independent research in this field without attracting international attention, in order to avoid potential disruptions. The most important defensive strategies include: diversifying the production and export portfolio to reduce vulnerability to oil sanctions and dependence solely on oil revenues; establishing robust trade relations with other countries in both Asia and Europe alongside China to avoid over-reliance on a single partner; and simultaneously utilizing communication technologies from China, Europe, and the U.S. while striving to reduce dependency on foreign communication technology products.ConclusionTo develop effective strategies, the SWOT model proves to be highly efficient. The Sino–American competition presents both opportunities and threats to Iran. Economic competition has garnered more attention due to its large scale and significant impact on the trade relations of other countries, compared to other areas of competition. However, other fields, such as the military, have also seen significant developments, including issues related to Taiwan and the U.S. military agreements with China’s neighboring countries to limit its power. In addition, by analyzing the factors that contribute to Iran’s smart power, the SWOT model helped identify Iran’s strengths and weaknesses. The four components—strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats—led to the formulation of four strategic categories: offensive, conservative, competitive, and defensive.
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