چهارچوب شناسی راهبرد آمریکا برای «مهار جمهوری اسلامی ایران» با تأکید بر دوره بایدن (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تاریخ روابط بین ایران و ایالات متحده آمریکا از فرازوفرود زیادی برخوردار بوده، این فرایند بعد از انقلاب اسلامی نیز از وضعیت پیچیده تری برخوردار شده است. دولت های مختلف دموکرات و جمهوری خواه با ابزارها و روش های مختلفی در پی فشار بر جمهوری اسلامی ایران بوده و هستند. در این راستا تحقیق حاضر در پی آن است که راهبرد دولت بایدن در فشار بر جمهوری اسلامی ایران را مورد پردازش قرار دهد. این راهبرد از سویی نتیجه انباشت تاریخی و یادگیرنده انواع روش های فشار دولت های مختلف ایالات متحده علیه ایران محسوب می شود و از سوی دیگر متأثر از سیاست های ویژه دولت بایدن در قبال جمهوری اسلامی و تحولات نظم جهانی است. این تحقیق از نوع توسعه ای- کاربردی است چراکه از سویی دارای دامنه و دلالت های نظری و از سوی دیگر دارای کاربردهای عملیاتی در حوزه سیاست گذاری است. یافته های تحقیق بیانگر آن است که روش فشار دولت بایدن بر ایران را می توان ذیل عنوان کلی «مهار ترکیبی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در وضعیت پیچیدگی» مورد پردازش قرار داد. در مهار ترکیبی در وضعیت پیچیدگی به دلیل پیوندهای حساس و پیچیده سیستم و کاهش قابلیت پیش بینی پذیری و کاهش قابلیت واپایش وضعیت روابط بین بازیگران مختلف، دو عنصر «طراحی» و «بهره برداری» از اهمیت توأمان برخوردار هستند.Understanding the Biden Administration’s "Hybrid Containment" Strategy Towards Iran
IntroductionThe relationship between Iran and the United States has been turbulent, especially following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Both Democratic and Republican administrations have used different strategies to pressure Iran, making this one of the most complex relationships in international affairs. Examining this dynamic—particularly in light of major historical events like the 1953 coup and the post-1979 tensions—is a multi-layered challenge that goes beyond politics. It also involves sociology, economics, and security studies, reflecting the deep and evolving complexities of global power structures. However, over the years, scholars and analysts have studied the various strategies the U.S. has employed against Iran, identifying patterns of hostility. This paper focuses on the Biden administration’s approach, assessing how it builds on past U.S. policies while introducing its own methods in response to global changes.MethodologyThis study explores a key question: What framework defines the "Hybrid Containment" strategy used by the Biden administration against Iran? The main goal is to understand how the U.S. applies a mix of tactics to exert pressure on Iran. The research is both theoretical and practical, contributing to policy discussions while offering operational insights. It relies on documentary and library sources, combining deductive and inductive reasoning, and uses a descriptive-analytical approach for interpretation. Since the study is exploratory, it does not test specific hypotheses.Discussion and ResultsThe study finds that the Biden administration’s approach to Iran falls under the concept of "Hybrid Containment in a Complex Environment." This strategy reflects the unpredictable and deeply interconnected nature of economic, security, and social factors influencing global relations today. Because of this complexity, two key aspects—planning and exploitation —are essential. The U.S. aims not only to structure a containment strategy for Iran but also to take advantage of unexpected developments and interactions.Washington’s approach involves two main elements: deterrence (blocking Iran’s actions) and compellence (forcing Iran to comply). This strategy is shaped by broader shifts in global power dynamics, particularly the U.S. effort to manage its declining influence while countering emerging powers like China. Moreover, the foundation of U.S. policy toward Iran operates on two levels. The first level concerns Iran itself—its post-revolution identity and the nature of the Islamic Republic. The second level involves Iran’s geopolitical and economic significance, particularly its role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s access to southern trade routes. The Ukraine war has, in turn, increased Iran’s strategic importance in global trade.To counter Iran’s influence, the U.S. has adopted two key strategies:"Neither Negotiation nor Confrontation" – Keeping Iran in a frozen state diplomatically while minimizing its geopolitical relevance.Undermining the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic – Portraying Iran as ineffective and creating social divisions.Within these strategies, the U.S. and its allies employ various techniques. One common approach is gray-zone deterrence, applying pressure below the threshold of open war to limit Iran’s ability to respond. Specific tactics include:Expanding economic sanctions, disrupting Iran’s oil exports, and interfering with financial transactions.Supporting a network of terrorist groups and regional allies—including India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel—as a counterweight to Iran’s axis of resistance and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.Using media and psychological tactics to weaken Iran’s domestic unity, polarizing society, and questioning the future of the resistance movement.ConclusionThe Biden administration’s Iran strategy reflects a blend of historical precedents and modern geopolitical shifts. Its hybrid containment model operates within a deeply interconnected global environment, balancing deterrence with strategic exploitation. The U.S. aims to limit Iran’s regional influence while shaping a global order that preserves American power in an era of rising competition.
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